São Paulo – The outflow of foreign investors from the Securities, Commodities and Futures Exchange (BM&FBovespa) should not affect exchange. Market analysts believe that the movement of share sales by foreigners should continue in coming months, but there should not, for this reason, be appreciation of the dollar, which could benefit exporters.
"The outflow of foreign capital from the stock markets has marginal, not determinant, effect on exchange rates," explained the analyst at Socopa Corretora, Oscar Camilo, recalling that other factors compensate the effect on the balance of payments, like foreign direct investment, investment in fixed income or the acquisition of money by Brazilian companies abroad. The analyst recalls that most of the foreign investors in Brazil placed their funds in fixed income.
The exchange manager at brokerage TOV, Alexandre Milanov, recalled, in fact, that exchange rates only presented slight oscillation over the last few days, despite the profit taking (sales) on the stock market. "The outflow of foreign capital from the stock market should not affect exchange rates," said Milanov. The commercial dollar ended Wednesday (23) with 0.12% appreciation, and each dollar was being bought at 1.673 Brazilian reals and being sold at 1.675 reals.
The exit of foreign investors from the BM&FBovespa started late last year and continued in February, with slight reduction last week. Early this week, there was a negative balance of 1.8 billion reals, for non-resident foreign investors in the stock market in February, resulting from an inflow of 30.4 billion reals and an outflow of 32.2 billion reals. In the accumulated result for the year, the negative balance was 1.4 billion reals.
Foreign investors, according to Camilo, are changing their dynamics, leaving emerging markets and returning to developed nations. "Emerging markets tided the crisis well and now need to work on fiscal reforms to contain inflation. Much of the stimulus adopted after the crisis heated the economy, with the possibility of generating inflation," he said. Emerging markets made great efforts in the fiscal area during the crisis, and now are recovering little by little.
*Translated by Mark Ament
