São Paulo — Brazilian agribusiness is on alert over the effects of the war between the United States and Israel and Iran. The sector has trade relations not only with the Persian country but with several Middle Eastern nations that depend on the Strait of Hormuz—currently closed—for the arrival and departure of ships. If the current scenario continues, it could affect not only Brazil’s food exports but also the supply of foreign fertilizers to the country, according to an analysis by the Brazil’s agribusiness lobby, CNA. Logistics costs are already being felt by the sector.
Two of the main suppliers of urea to Brazilian agribusiness, Oman and Qatar, are located in the conflict region, the first accounting for 16% of the international supply of the product and the second for 13%, according to CNA data. Iran exports little urea to Brazil. But Oman and Qatar were Brazil’s second- and fourth-largest suppliers of the product in 2025, respectively, according to the survey released by the lobby. Nigeria was the main supplier, followed by Russia in third and Algeria in fifth.
Urea is used as fertilizer in Brazil’s crops and is affected by the natural gas market, its main input, whose prices—like those of oil—have surged with the war in the Middle East. Qatar, whose only maritime outlet is the Gulf Sea, where the Strait of Hormuz is located, is a major gas producer. “We have been tracking urea prices in Brazil and they have already risen by 33% since the start of the conflict,” CNA technical director Bruno Lucchi told ANBA.
Urea is used as fertilizer in Brazil’s crops and is affected by the natural gas market, its main input, whose prices—like those of oil—have surged with the war in the Middle East. Qatar, whose only maritime outlet is the Gulf Sea, where the Strait of Hormuz is located, is a major gas producer. “We’ve been tracking urea prices in Brazil and they have already risen by 33% since the start of the conflict,” CNA technical director Bruno Lucchi told ANBA.
Brazil, however, still has some breathing room before feeling the impact of urea prices, since it is mainly used to fertilize corn. “The crop is being planted now and fertilization has begun, so what needed to be used this season has already been purchased,” Lucchi explains. Urea for the next corn crop may be bought over the course of this semester. “So, we would still have a few weeks in which producers could wait a bit longer to see where the market goes,” Lucchi says.
The impact of diesel prices, however, is already being felt on rural properties that rely on fuel stations. The effect of the international rise in oil prices has not yet reached Brazil, but some stations are already charging more. “We’ve received information that some regions have seen increases of between BRL 1-1.50 [USD 0.20-0.30] at the pump,” Lucchi said about the price per liter. Due to the increase driven by the external scenario, CNA on Friday (6) urged Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy to raise the mandatory biodiesel blend in diesel in the country from the current 15% to 17%.
“Producers need diesel at this moment, when crop management practices for what was planted in the second harvest are being applied. In much of Brazil, producers are harvesting soybeans right now, or planting corn, or carrying out crop management. The use of machinery in the field is intense at this time,” Lucchi explains. Waiting to harvest or plant would affect output and productivity. The technical director also notes that much of farm logistics is done by truck. Like tractors and harvesters, trucks in Brazil mainly run on diesel.
Agribusiness has direct trade with Iran, but the main product exported to the Persian country is corn, whose largest volumes are shipped from August to January. Soybeans and sugar, the second- and third-largest products exported to Iran, could be redirected to other markets, according to Lucchi. “What are we most concerned about in exports? Meats, particularly chicken, when we look at the entire Middle East. We send 29% of all the chicken we export to this region,” Lucchi says. According to him, industries have been trying alternative routes and adjusting logistics to deliver the product to the region.
Conflict raises cargo insurance costs
Maritime transport for agribusiness products, as well as for other sectors, is already being heavily impacted. “Freight is much more expensive. Insurance, which used to be 0.25% of the cargo’s value, is already reaching 1%, so this raise costs a lot,” says Lucchi. Freight rates have increased for shipments to all regions, and insurance has risen for the affected area. “With route diversions and many ships staying in some ports longer than necessary, companies also have to pay penalties for remaining docked beyond the scheduled time,” he explains.
Lucchi says CNA is closely monitoring developments in the conflict and notes that the analysis is highly specific because everything can change in a short period of time. According to him, the impacts will depend on how long the conflict lasts. “With these logistical issues, which weigh heavily, imported products will become more expensive. If diesel prices rise, all of Brazil’s logistics will be affected, not just agribusiness. Everything that depends on transport will become more expensive,” he says.
Arab countries in the Gulf region have been affected by the conflict, with Iranian attacks and other repercussions. Arab nations such as Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar have maritime access only through the Gulf Sea, where the Strait of Hormuz is located. Saudi Arabia has major ports in the Gulf Sea but also has maritime access through the Red Sea. The United Arab Emirates has maritime access only through the Gulf Sea, though a small part of its coastline lies before the strait. Other Arab countries in the Middle East, such as Oman and Yemen, have sea access independent of the Strait of Hormuz.
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Translated by Guilherme Miranda
