São Paulo – The productive sector is betting on a positive scenario for the Brazilian economy. The Sensor Econômico (Economic sensor) bulletin, issued this Thursday (29th) by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea), in the city of São Paulo, points out that Brazilian exports should total US$ 180 billion in 2010, as against US$ 153 billion last year. The GDP, job generation and investment growth projections have also been revised upwards.
In the first two months of the year, the survey indicated that Brazilian exports would total US$ 170 billion, in March and April the projection rose to US$ 175 billion, and in the third quarter of the year it went up to US$ 180 billion.
With regard to imports, the forecast made in May and June points to US$ 160 billion, the same as in the estimate disclosed in March and April. As of January and February, the forecast was US$ 155 billion.
“Presently, exports are growing at a slower pace than imports, but the balance of trade should run a surplus once again,” said the director of Macroeconomic Studies and Policies of the Institute, João Sicsú.
According to him, the productive sector is increasing its GDP growth rate forecast as the year passes. The bulletin for May and June forecasts that the actual growth rate will be 6.5% in 2010. In the first two months of the year, the forecasted rate was 5.2%; in March and April, it was 5.5%.
The bulletin also forecasts that 1.55 million jobs should be created this year. The estimate in the immediately preceding two-month period was 1.5 million jobs. “Civil construction, for instance, used to be a segment with a low degree of formalization that has grown a lot over the last few years, and it contributed to the record-high job generation forecast,” said Sicsú.
As for investment, growth rate of 15% is expected. “Usually, the rate of growth for investment is nearly three times higher than GDP growth. Thus, the forecasted growth rate of 15%, as against 6.5% of GDP growth, is in keeping with what has been taking place recently,” he said.
Twice a year, in April and October, the organization discloses its expectation regarding GDP growth for the next five years. According to the figure disclosed last April, the actual growth rate should rise by an average of 4.5% per year over the next five years.
The Ipea director stated that organizations are expecting inflation to increase by 5.5% and the benchmark interest rate to rise by up to 11.5%. The benchmark rate is now 10.75%. Inflationary pressure comes mostly from sectors such as public transport, foods, school material and personal hygiene products. “But this may not prove true, because rising food and beverage consumption, for instance, is a positive indicator and there is no inflationary pressure in sight,” said Sicsú.
“We are experiencing the best economic moment of the last 25 years,” said the director. “Inflation is comfortably within the Central Bank’s target. We had never had a situation in which there was no foreign debt and no dollarized domestic debt. Our foreign situation is solid and we have no debt with the IMF, the country has the autonomy and time to fight crises and decide which way it will go,” he finished off.
Besides, according to the director, the country has grown with income distribution, a higher minimum wage, and increased labour formalization rate. “We have an extremely positive macroeconomic perspective for the next two or three years,” he claimed.
The bulletin
The bulletin discloses perspectives for the key macroeconomic indicators of the year, according to forecasts made by productive sector organizations, such as associations and federations of industry, trade and agriculture; worker unions; and a few sectorial institutes or study centres. The bimonthly questionnaire is answered by approximately 70 organizations. The Ipea asks eight questions and discloses the median answer.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
