From the Newsroom
São Paulo – Foreign soy trade (beans, oil, and ground) should reach US$ 12 billion this year, which corresponds to a US$ 3.6 billion increase when compared to 2003 income with export of the bean. This is the forecast of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food Supply minister Roberto Rodrigues.
Rodrigues believes that the reduction in global production of the current soy harvest, due to climate problems, will be compensated by an increase in product prices on the foreign market: "For the time being, our export estimate for 2004 is that, despite the harvest reduction caused by lack of rain in the South, and to excessive rain in the North and Centre-West, and the losses caused by Asian soy rust in some states, especially Goiás and Bahia," stated the minister.
"What is helping is that prices are rising on the foreign market, with the Chicago Exchange registering price record after price record." Rodrigues pointed out that the Ministry is sticking to the initial estimated revenues of US$ 12 billion in foreign trade of soy.
Potential
To the Agriculture minister, the country grain harvest may reach 200 million tonnes within the next ten years. "But our potential can rise as high as 290 million tonnes of grain, if the current technology standards are maintained." In a period of 15 years, Brazilian agriculture should incorporate around 30 million hectares, which is currently included in the 220 million hectares of pasture, pointed out Rodrigues.
Based on the transfer of grazing land to agricultural activities, the Ministry estimates that the country can reach harvests of around 80 million tonnes of soy, 165 million tonnes of maize, 26 million tonnes of rice, six million tonnes of beans, 5.2 million tonnes of cotton, and eight million tonnes of wheat.
This growth potential cannot only be sustained by the possibility of expansion through the use of cropland. Technology, as a consequence of machinery research, will also be decisive for the country to increase productivity. The Agriculture ministry also revealed that Brazil can elevate the harvest performance from 2.8 tonnes per hectare to 4.5 tonnes per hectare. Sugar cane production, may rise from 384 million to 443 million hectares, with productivity rising from 78.4 tonnes per hectare to 90 tonnes per hectare.
"In the last 14 years, our agricultural production has grown 126.3%, whereas the cropland has risen only 24.3%," emphasized the minister. In this period, he added, the agricultural yield has risen 85.5%. "No other country had a growth like this," he observed.
Meat
Minister Rodrigues also stated that Brazilian meat produciton has presented expressive increases in the last 14 years. Chicken production rose 234%, reaching 7.8 million tonnes in 2003. Cattle beef production had an 85.2% increase and reached 7.6 million tonnes, whereas pork rose 173% and totalled 2.8 million tonnnes last year.
"The whole world is watching Brazilian agricultural production with respect and even worry, due to our competitiveness," stated the minister. In his evaluation, this goes to show how important it is for the country to have a firmer position in international negotiations, in defence and opening of the agricultural markets, followed by a reduction in protectionsim.
