São Paulo – The Middle East’s share of global tourist flow should rise from the current 6% to 8% by 2030, according to a report issued this Wednesday (12) by the United Nations’ World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) during the 19th session of its General Assembly in Gyeongju, South Korea.
This means the number of people visiting the region each year will increase from 61 million in 2010 to 149 million in 2030, a 145% increase. “It’s investment and it’s also that the appetite for travel of the Middle East people themselves has grown more,” said the manager of the UNWTO’s tourism trends and marketing strategies program, John Kester, according to newspaper The National, based in Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates.
For the sake of illustration, the region’s share of world tourism doubled since 1980. In Kester’s assessment, Middle Eastern citizens are “more connected to the rest of the world,” and the region has strong links to Asia and Africa. “You also see it reflected in the fast growth of the region’s airlines,” he said, according to the newspaper.
In total, the UNWTO expects the international tourist flow to reach 1.8 billion people per year by 2030, as against 940 million last year. This translates into an average annual increase of 3.3%, i.e. 43 million more travellers each year. Within two decades, the organization forecasts that 5 million people will cross international borders each days seeking leisure, business, family visits, among others.
Even though the estimated annual growth is lower than in the last decades, according to a statement issued by the UNWTO, its secretary general, Taleb Rifai, has said that the industry’s expansion “offers huge possibilities.” “Because these may also be years of leadership, with tourism driving economic growth, social development, and environmental sustainability,” he said.
The UNWTO believes tourism will grow at a higher rate in developing countries (4.4% per year) than in developed ones (2.2% per year), and that from 2015 onward, the former will receive more visitors than the latter. By 2030, the piece of emerging countries in the global tourism pie should be 58%.
According to the survey, emerging economies in Asia, Latin America, Central, Eastern and West Mediterranean Europe, the Middle East and Africa should receive an average of 30 million more tourists per year, whereas destinations regarded as more traditional, such as North America, Western Europe, and some areas of the Asia-Pacific region should receive 14 million visitors.
Africa’s share in global tourism, for instance, may increase from 5% to 7&. The Americas’ share should go from 14% to 16%; the Asia-Pacific region’s share should climb from 22% to 30%; and Europe’s should drop from 51% to 41%.
The survey also states by 2030 that a significant share of tourists will be Asian. The number of travellers from the region is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5%, which means 17 million more people each year.
“Parallel to these opportunities [created through the growth of tourism], challenges will arise with regard to maximizing the social and economic benefits of the industry, while minimizing negative effects. To that end, it is more important than ever that the whole progress of tourism is founded on the principles of sustainable development,” said Rifai.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
