São Paulo – The world economy should grow by 2.9% this year and 3.3% in 2011, according to the Global Economic Prospects report, issued by the World Bank today (9th). For 2012, the growth forecast ranges from 3.2% to 3.5%. The estimates point to a strengthening of international economic activity, which declined by 2.1% last year.
According to the bank, developing countries should drive the trend, with a forecast annual growth of 5.7% to 6.2% from 2010 to 2012. As for wealthy countries, the growth estimates range from 2.1% to 2.3% in 2010, and from 1.9% to 2.4% in 2011. If confirmed, the figures this year will not suffice to make up for the 3.3% decline recorded in developed economies in 2009.
The World Bank warns that the European debt crisis, which started in Greece, posed “new obstacles to sustainable growth” in the medium term. In other words, the debt of more developed countries threatens to hamper more optimistic perspectives of economic progress.
However, the economist-in-chief at the institution, Justin Yifu Lin, stated that “the better performance of developing countries in today’s world of multipolar growth is reassuring,” according to a statement issued by the bank. “But for the rebound to endure, high-income countries need to seize opportunities offered by stronger growth in developing countries,” he declared.
The report adds that international trade is recovering well and should rise by 21% this year. Trade should grow by 8% a year in 2011 and 2012, informs the report.
Regions
In terms of regions, according to the bank, Latin America and the Caribbean should post average growth rates of 4.3% per year from 2010 to 2012, as against a 2.3% reduction in 2009. Brazil grew by 9% in the first quarter of this year, compared with the same period of 2009, according to data disclosed yesterday (8th) by the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
For the Middle East and North Africa, the growth estimate is 4% in 2010, 4.3% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012. The oil price bounce back is one of the main growth-inducing factors in the region.
The highest regional growth rate estimates, however, are those of the Eastern Asia and Pacific region, at 8.7% in 2010 and 7.8% in 2011, driven by China.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
