São Paulo – The slow rate of growth of the world economy will affect the growth of global trade this and next year, according to a press statement released this Friday (21st) by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The WTO economists have lowered their world trade growth forecast from 3.7% to 2.5% in 2012 and form 5.6% to 4.5% in 2013. “In an increasingly interdependent world, economic shocks in one region can quickly spread to others. Recently announced measures to reinforce the euro and boost growth in the United States are therefore extremely welcome,” said WTO director-general Pascal Lamy according to the statement.
To Lamy, however, other measures must be taken. “We need a renewed commitment to revitalize the multilateral trading system which can restore economic certainty at a time when it is badly needed. The last thing the world economy needs right now is the threat of rising protectionism,” he stated.
The WTO statement shows that the volume of global trade, measured as per average imports and exports, was up only 0.3% from the first to the second quarter this year.
According to the statement, the slowing down of trade in the first half of 2012 was driven by an even sharper decline in imports by developed countries, and correspondingly weak exports from developing nations.
The WTO also forecasts an increase in worldwide exports in 2012, even though it has revised its expectations downwards. For developed economies, the organization estimates a 1.5% increase in exports, as against April’s estimate of 2%. For developing economies, a 3.5% increase is expected, as against an earlier forecast of 5.6%. Regarding imports, the WTO forecasts a 0.4% increase in developed economies, as against 1.9% in the previous estimate, and a 5.4% increase in developing economies, as against 6.2% in the last estimate.
In 2013, to WTO expects exports from developed countries to be up 3.3%, and exports from developing countries to be up 5.7%. Imports are expected to be up 3.4% in developed economies and 6.1% in developing ones.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
