São Paulo – Three out of the five leading importers of sugar from Brazil in the 2918/19 season are Arab countries. So far, 15 million tons of sugar got shipped from Brazil, down 29% from a year ago. The numbers were made public this Thursday (20) during a press conference by the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica).
The result was driven by the fact that China, formerly the leading buyer of the commodity from Brazil, stepped out of the picture: it announced a barrier on above-quota imports. The move came in May 2017, and it raised the tax from 50% to 95%. As a result, exports from Brazil to the Asian country slid by 87%, from 2.4 million tons in 2016 to just 300,000 tons in 2017.
Algeria rose to the lead in 2018, securing a 10% share of total exports from Brazil. India placed second and Bangladesh placed third. The UAE were the fourth leading buyer at 7.4%, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 6.6% of total foreign sales. “Two thirds of sugar production go to foreign markets; we cannot lose market share. Thus being, it is important to maintain and increase exports to (Arab) markets,” Unica technical director Antonio de Padua Rodrigues told ANBA.
In years to come, however, Unica expects China to return to being a key buyer. “Over the past few months, the tax was already brought down to 90%. Besides, they have withdrawn some incentives to other countries. That parity means exports to China should start growing again,” argued Padua. According to Unica, Brazil’s Foreign Trade Chamber (Camex) is already calling on the Asian country to backtrack on its decision. The rate is expected to drop to 85% next year.
Cane crop
The 2018/2019 crop season, which ends in March 2019, is expected to see 560 million tons of sugarcane, says the technical diretor. Unica reported that 556.85 million tons had been processed by December 16. The amount points to a 4.1% drop over a year ago, due to climate issues such as drought during key periods for the culture. “The crop failure concentrated in São Paulo and Paraná, but it happened in all producing states,” said Padua. The National Supply Company (Conab) expects 615.84 million tons of sugarcane to be produced, down from 633.26 million tons in 2017/18, according to numbers made public this Thursday.
“An ethanol crop”
Conab numbers also point to a new record in total ethanol production, which should hit 32.3 billion liters by the end of the 2018/19 crop, up 18.6% from the previous crop. Hydrated ethanol output is also expected to reach an all-time high at 21.6 billion liters, up from 19.6 billion in 2010/2011, when the current record was set. Sugar production is expected to decline by 16.2% to 31.72 million tons. “Since the domestic scenario is more favorable for ethanol, considering the hike in the US dollar and in oil prices, coupled with Petrobras’ price readjustment policy, manufacturing plants will focus their attention on ethanol production this year,” the Conab reported.
The Unica reported that from the beginning of the 2018/19 crop to December 16, sugar output slid by 26.72% to 26.17 million tons, ethanol production was up 18.93% to 29.77 billion liters – including 9.06 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol and 20.7 billion liters of hydrated ethanol, the latter being a record. “This has been an ethanol-driven crop. And how did Brazil cease to be a sugar-driven country? As a result of lower international sugar prices and increased competitiveness for ethanol, in tandem with what is happening with gasoline prices,” said Padua.
In addition to domestic sales, ethanol’s share in overall exports increased by 16% this year, going from 1.14 billion liters during the 2017/18 season to 1.32 billion liters in the current one. Revenue also climbed, from USD 616 million to USD 683 million in 2018/19. The leading importers are the United States (54.3%), South Korea (33.3%), Japan (6.03%), the Netherlands (2.27%) and Colombia (1.33%).
So far this season, 64.44% of sugarcane harvested in Brazil went to ethanol production. In 2019, Unica expects the share of ethanol in the mix to remain the same. “Next year should see no changes in sugar prices. We don’t see this output going back up in the short term,” Unica’s technical director said.
Bioeletricity
And yet another sector was discussed at the Unica press conference – bioelectricity. In 2018, biomass sources in general are expected to produce 26,430 GWh for Brazil’s National Integrated System (Sistema Integrado Nacional – SIN). The number is up 4% from 2017 and enough to supply 14 million households for a year.
As for bioelectricity from sugar and ethanol, the amount of power expected to be supplied in 2018 to the SIN is 21,580 GWh, up 0.6% from 2017. That is enough to meet the yearlong needs of over half the households in the State of São Paulo. The numbers are yet to match the more enthusiastic expectations from the industry. “We could supply seven times more than we do today. We are undertapping,” Unica bioelectricity manager Zilmar de Souza explained.
One of the possibilities for changing that is RenovaBio, the National Biofuel Policy, which would help define and ensure the role of biofuels, especially when it comes to energy safety and to reducing greenhouse emissions.
Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
