São Paulo – The Agricultural Outlook for 2011 to 2020, disclosed on Friday (17), in Paris, by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), points out that imports of agricultural products should grow rapidly in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa.
On presenting tendencies for international food trade over the decade, the document informs that, alongside import markets, the region, which includes all of the Arab countries, should increase its purchases in a significant manner due to the growth in income from oil.
The report shows that the region should lead in imports of meats in the period, especially chicken; it will also have a significant growth in dairy imports, especially of the product in bulk, for local processing.
In this respect, the study shows that political and economic conditions in the Arab world will be of great importance to agricultural trade, and the variation in the price of oil and the results of revolutions in the region this year may have a strong impact on the sector.
In fact, early into the document they point out that the period analysed begins under the effect of the unstable situation in the Middle East, of high hydrocarbon prices and of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan.
Brazil
By logic, oscillations in the Arab market will bring profit or losses to Brazil, mentioned throughout the document as one of the main players in agricultural production in coming years. The country is already a great supplier of food to the Arab market.
“Higher exports from Brazil are antecipaded for virtually all its main commodities,” says the research, adding, however, that foreign sales from the country should grow less than in the previous decade, due to appreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar, which makes Brazilian products more expensive abroad.
The study points out perspectives for greater demand and production of several products that are much present in Brazil, like oleaginous plants, especially soy, sugar, meats, dairy and biofuels.
In the case of meats, whose global exports should grow 15% over the decade, most of the growth should come from the American continent, where Brazil is already the main sector exporter, with 20% to 25% participation in the global market. Apart from animal protein, the report shows that the country should expand production and exports of oleaginous plants and grain.
In the sugar and alcohol sector, Brazil should continue dominating the global sugar market, with a 50% share. In the area of ethanol, the country should answer to 33% of global production by 2020, second only to the US, as is the case today. In the case of soy biodiesel, the estimate is for Brazilian production to grow by 3 billion litres throughout the decade.
*Translated by Mark Ament
