São Paulo – Global sugar consumption is expected to continue a gradual growth trajectory of 1.2% per year in the 2026/2027 harvest, driven by emerging economies in Asia and Africa. Meanwhile, developed countries are likely to reduce per capita consumption due to changing habits and partial substitution with alternative sweeteners.
The outlook was released on Tuesday (30) by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) at the University of São Paulo (USP) as part of its sugar market analysis. According to Cepea researchers, the global sugar market is heading toward a looser supply scenario during the 2026/2027 harvest.
Brazil, the largest sugar producer and exporter, expects an increase in sugarcane milling in the Central-South region. The country produces sugar mainly from cane, which is also used for ethanol production.
Cepea says the Brazilian sugarcane production could exceed 620 million metric tons, but the increase does not necessarily guarantee a strong rise in sugar output. With the global market projected to have ample sugar availability among major producers, the sector is likely to adjust the mix between sugar and ethanol.
Brazil is expected to produce between 41 and 44 million tons of sugar in the 2026/2027 harvest, up from 39.17 million tons in the current 2025/26 season, according to data from sugar and ethanol industry group UNICA. Cepea notes that the prevailing outlook for the international market points to moderate sugar prices, influenced by factors such as more comfortable stock levels and competition among exporters.
Read more:
Morocco, Iraq greenlight Brazilian hay
Translated by Guilherme Miranda
