Brasília – Financial institutions in Brazil have revised down, for the second straight time, their inflation rate forecast for this year. According to the weekly survey conducted by the Brazilian Central Bank (BC) released this Monday (5), the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) should be at 4.40%. Last week, the forecast was 4.43%.
For 2019, the estimate remained at 4.22%. The inflation rate forecast for 2020 also remained unchanged at 4%. For 2021, it went from 3.95% to 3.97%. The inflation target established by the BC for this year is 4.5%.
The market also believes that the SELIC, the benchmark interest rates, will stay at 6.5% per year until the end of 2018. For 2019, it believes it will go up, ending the year at 8% per year, and remaining unchanged in 2020 and 2021.
The market also believes the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow 1.36% in 2018 and 2.50% in the next three years. For the value of the dollar, the market revised down its forecast from BRL 3.71 to BRL 3.70 at the end of this year, and kept unchanged the estimate for 2019 at BRL 3.80.
Translated by Sérgio Kakitani
