Brasília – A slight increase in exports and imports of goods whose prices have declined in recent months led the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services of Brazil to forecast a record trade surplus in 2023. Surplus is the positive result of a balance of trade, where a country’s exports exceed its imports.
The second estimate of the year forecasts a surplus of USD 84.7 billion. The forecast is updated every three months. If confirmed, the surplus will be 37.7% higher than 2022’s USD 61.525 billion, the highest result ever posted so far.
The surplus is expected to rise as imports will fall more than exports compared to 2022. The government forecasts USD 330 billion worth of exports this year, down 1.2% from USD 334.1 billion last year. On the other hand, imports are bound to reach USD 245.2 billion, down 10% from USD 272.6 billion in 2022.
According to the ministry, two factors underlie the record surplus in 2023. Firstly, the prices of energy commodities like oil and items like fertilizers are on a downward trend after peaking in the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Secondly, the economic slowdown is expected to cause a decrease in imports due to consumption reduction.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has impacted imports in recent months. Global prices of fertilizers fell 55.2% in June compared to a year earlier. The average price of imported fuels decreased 40.4% year on year. The average price of wheat, another good Brazil imports large amounts of, fell 18.6%.
Translated by Guilherme Miranda
