From the Newsroom
São Paulo – The Brazilian grain harvest in 2003/2004 – the first planted during the mandate of president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – is set to reach a record volume of between 124.4 and 127.7 million tons, a 1.5% to 4.2% increase against the 122.5-million-ton 2002/03 harvest, informed agriculture, livestock and supply minister Roberto Rodrigues on Thursday, October 23.
These figures are included in the first harvest analysis study promoted by the Brazilian National Food Supply Company (Conab), between October 6 and 10, covering 426 municipalities in the main productive regions in Brazil. State technicians interviewed 1,125 people, among them producers, technicians, and machinery and supply dealers.
"Confirmation of these estimate depend on the climate", stated the minister. Forecasts by the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) point at little rain in November and December, which is sewing time.
"This may affect productivity slightly", said the minister, although the estimated 9.8% growth in fertilizer consumption, from 19.1 to 21 million tons, strengthens the record harvest estimate.
"The increase in use of these products reflects an increase in technology and greater capitalization by producers."
The sewed area is also set to rise. The Conab study points at a level between 45.2 and 46.2 million hectares, a 3% to 5.4% rise in comparison to the 43.9 million hectares of 2002/03. This represents an increase of between 1.3 e 2.4 million hectares to Brazilian agriculture.
Cotton, soy and rice may be the main items responsible for this increase. In the corn area, the harvest is set to shrink 5.5%. Productivity in the current harvest, which has just started, is set to drop on average 1.4%, from 2,792 to 2,752 kg/ha.
Soy, the main product in agriculture
Following the trend this year, soy is set to be the most prominent item in the 2003/04 harvest. It is estimated that the record production of the oleaginous plant be between 56.1 and 58 million tons, an increase between 7.8% and 11.5% over the 52 million tons for 2002/03.
According to Rodrigues, Brazil should export around 25 million tons of soy in grain, and 16 million tons of ground soy. He forecasts a 10% growth in revenue from product sales in 2004, adding up to around US$ 8 billion this year.
Cottonseed is also expected to have a significant increase, reaching levels between 1.74 and 1.81 million tons, a 27.6% to 33.2% above the last harvest, which totaled 1.36 million tons.
Estimated figures for cotton feather variation are between 1 and 1.13 million tons, with an estimated increase between 28.3% and 34% over the 847,500 tons of the last season. The rice harvest is set to rise between 10.1% and 13.2%, going from 10.3 million tons to between 11.4 and 11.7 million tons.
Conab also expects a 4.1% to 5% bean harvest increase, with estimated production between 3.33 and 3.36 million tons, against 3.2 million tons harvested in 2002/03. The maize harvest, though, should have a drop between 7.9% and 5.9%, at between 43.79 and 44.76 million tons, against the 47.5 million tons for the 2002/03 period. "As there is a stock of 5 million tons, domestic supply is guaranteed to flow smoothly", pointed out the minister.
Wheat
The study also showed the production of 5.1 million tons of wheat in 2004, a volume identical to last year. This represents about 50% of Brazilian consumption, estimated by Conab at 10.1 million tons. With this, Brazil has become less dependent on product import and is once again producing grain at the same levels it was at the end of the 1980s, when harvests were 5.4 million tons.
The minister pointed out that the Conab forecast is conservative. "It is considered that climate conditions last year were exceptionally good, very favorable, and that this will most probably not be repeated next year. We have then made a conservative productivity forecast", concluded Rodrigues.
