Rio de Janeiro – The Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB) defends the inclusion of measures like the cancellation of the export tax, the offer of lines of credit to overcome the lack of international financing and the liberation of accumulated government funds in action plans against the crisis. These topics should be promoted at the Business Summit of the National Forum of the National Institute for High-Level Studies (Inae), to take place from May 18th to 21st, in Rio de Janeiro. The plan should be launched today (16th) in São Paulo and Rio.
According to the vice president at the AEB, José Augusto de Castro, Brazilian exports should drop between 17% and 18% this year, to between US$ 160 billion and US$ 163 billion. Castro said that the reduction should be due to lower commodity prices and lower shipments of manufactured products.
He explained that this should take place as buyer markets of Brazilian manufactured products, in Latin America and Africa, are living difficult times. "Therefore, the buying power of these countries has fallen significantly." Regarding the higher commodity prices last week, Castro pointed out "that it is still below the parameters reached last year."
For this year, expectations are for the trade balance surplus of Brazil to oscillate between US$ 15 billion and US$ 20 billion. The result should be lower than that obtained in 2008, but well above the more pessimistic forecasts of the export market, which point towards a surplus of around US$ 5 billion this year, said Castro. The AEB forecast is for a surplus of US$ 16 billion.
"This surplus is due to the great reduction in imports. Exports are still dropping, but imports show a greater rhythm of reduction." To José Augusto de Castro, this tendency should remain throughout the year, "unless the domestic market reacts in a very strong way."
*Translated by Mark Ament
