Brasília – The financial market has improved this year’s growth forecast for Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the eighth time. According to projections from the Focus Bulletin released this Monday (3) by the Brazilian Central Bank, the country is expected to grow by 2.19% in 2023. A week ago, the forecast was at 2.18%. There was also an increase in the GDP estimate for next year, to 1.28%, after 1.22% last week.
Concerning inflation rates, the bulletin supported a downward trend for the seventh consecutive week. The Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) is projected to close this year at 4.98%. A week ago, the market projection was inflation would be at 5.06%. Four weeks ago, it was 5.69%.
To calculate the inflation target, the Central Bank uses the interest rate (Selic), set at 13.75% a year by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), to calculate the inflation target as a baseline. The rate is at its highest level since January 2017. The next Copom meeting is scheduled for early August. For the financial market, expectations are for a decrease in the rate and closing the year at 12%.
Exchange rate
The financial market maintained its exchange rate forecast for the second week straight, with the US dollar closing the year worth BRL 5.00. Four weeks ago, the estimate was at BRL 5.10. For 2024, the projection is at BRL 5.08, lower than the previous week’s BRL 5.16. For 2025, expectations are for the rate to close at BRL 5.17.
Translated by Elúsio Brasileiro
