Brasília – The supply crisis wrought by trucker protests led financial market players to revise down their economic growth forecast and raise their inflation estimates. The Focus Bulletin issued weekly by the Brazilian Central Bank shows that expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth moved down from 2.50% to 2.37%, in the fourth straight downward. Expected GDP growth for 2019 remains at 3%.
The Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which gauges inflation in Brazil, is seen ending the year at 3.60%, up from a prior 3.50%. The IPCA forecast for the end of 2019 moved from 4.01% to 4%.
Central Bank poll respondents expect the benchmark interest rate to remain at 6.50% through the end of this year before going up throughout 2019 to end the year at 8% per annum. The US dollar price forecast changed up from BRL 3.43 to BRL 3.48 at the end of this year, and from BRL 3.45 to BRL 3.47 at the end of 2019.
Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
