São Paulo – Global demand for oil is forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels next year, reaching 101.6 million barrels per day, according to projections published on Wednesday (15) in the Oil Market Report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA expects the demand to grow to 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022 – and weaker economic growth will temper the growth of demand this year, while China is set to lead demand.
Non-OPEC members are expected to concentrate the increase in supply, which is forecast to grow by 1.9 million barrels per day this year and 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023. OPEC will see a contraction due to sanctions.
After almost two years of decline, global oil stocks will increase by 77 million barrels per day. Weaker growth of demand and the increased global oil supply are expected to remain by the end of the year and help rebalance the global oil market. This can change, though, as harsher sanctions against Russia come into force and the Chinese demand bounces back from the impacts of COVID.
As the refinery maintenance season comes to an end in the United States, Europe and Asia and the Chinese demand picks up, the refineries are expected to see a solid recovery around the world. An additional global increase of 1.9 million barrels is expected for 2023 in refining, supported by new refineries that will start operating in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. But the shortage in some products, diesel and kerosene, may remain a concern.
Translated by Guilherme Miranda
