São Paulo – The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects international trade to grow less this year than it had in 2018. In a report released this Tuesday (2), the WTO forecasts 2.6% expansion in 2019, down from last year’s 3% – which had already fallen short of expectations. In 2020, growth might go back to 3%, provided that tensions ease.
“With trade tensions running high, no one should be surprised by this outlook,” a WTO press release quoted director general Roberto Azevêdo (pictured) as saying. “Consensus estimates have world GDP growth slowing from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.6% in both 2019 and 2020,” the report reads.
In 2018, global trade was impacted by factors including the addition of import taxes by countries, retaliatory measures, weak economic growth, financial market volatility and fiscal tightness in developed nations. Results were particularly frustrating in the fourth quarter, which saw trade decrease by 0.3%.
In nominal terms, goods exports amounted to USD 19.48 trillion worldwide in 2018, up 10% from 2017. This was partly driven by an oil price hike of about 20%.
Brazil
Exports from Brazil were also up 10%, to USD 240 billion, but still the country slid from 26th to 27th on the list of leading exporters as Vietnam took its place.
As for Arab countries, UAE exports climbed 10% to USD 346 billion, and the country also lost one position on the ranking, from 15th to 16th, being overtaken by Russia.
Saudi Arabia went from 24th to 21st on the back of the oil price hike, as did Russia. Saudi exports fetched USD 299 billion last year, up 35% from 2017.
Imports
Brazil went from 29th to 28th on the list of biggest importers at USD 189 billion, up 20%. The UAE dropped from 18th to 20th at USD 253 billion worth of goods imported, down 6% year-on-year.
Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
