Dubai – In an interview released this Sunday (08) by the organization of the Annual Investment Meeting (AIM), a forum on foreign direct investments to be held in Dubai from Monday (09) to Wednesday (11), the deputy director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Yonov Frederick Agah, said that a trade war and increased tariff could undermine the growth of world trade.
The main players in this dispute, currently, are the United States and China, which announced, last week, the increase in tariffs on several products imported from one another that are worth USD 100 billion in bilateral trade. First action came from the US, which had already raised tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum, and the Chinese retaliation soon followed.
“Economic data and forecasts from the IMF, OECD, World Bank and others have been revised steadily upwards over the last year, which would tend to indicate a sustained recovery of trade in 2018 following strong trade growth in 2017,” said Agah, according to the AIM press release.
“However, trade frictions and geopolitical tensions have also risen sharply in recent months. Increased use of restrictive trade measures – and the retaliation that this would invite – could easily undermine a generally positive outlook for trade,” added the WTO executive.
According to him, protectionist measures, geopolitical tensions and uncertainties over policies for the sector are seen as the main risks for world trade. “WTO is the only global trade body, it provides the only forum where all countries – including the most powerful – can cooperate on the growing number of trade issues that impact them collectively,” he remarked.
Agah said that the WTO will launch on April 12 its annual trade statistics and trade forecasts. In February, the organization released its most recent forecasts for the sector, and they pointed to a strong growth in Q1.
“To reiterate, the outlook for global trade and output based on economic fundamentals is positive for 2018 and beyond. However, continued recovery is predicated on stability of the current trading environment, which is tenuous and could easily be reversed by political tensions and trade frictions. Member countries should use the multi-lateral system to resolve their differences and prevent economic uncertainty from undermining growth,” he added.
US president Donald Trump has shown to be particularly averse to the multi-lateral system and not only in the trade sector. “Trade disputes inevitably arise between countries, but settling them through neutral, rules-based and transparent process keeps them from escalating,” remarked Agah, recalling that WTO members were the ones that negotiated the rules themselves. “The fact that the WTO provides a transparent and predictable environment for international trade reduces uncertainty and can promote stronger trade and economic growth, which over the long run this means higher living standards,” he said.
AIM
It’s facing this recovery scenario of the world economy that the AIM will take place. The conference is an initiative from the Ministry of Economy of the United Arab Emirates and has the support of the emir of Dubai, Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, who will open the event. Maktoum is also UAE’s prime minister and vice president.
Representatives of the public and private sector will discuss topics such as investment trends, public-private partnerships, sustainability, investment promotion, crypto-currencies and sovereign funds. Agah will take part in a panel. In the investments sector, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) also forecasts growth for this year.
Among the countries that will hold presentations with the purpose of attracting investments are the UAE, China, Georgia, Italy, India, South Korea, Russia, Egypt, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Jordan, Botswana, Cameroon and Nigeria. Some Brazilian public bodies will take part and there will be a panel dedicated to Latin America and the Caribbean.
The opening discussion will focus on the induction of sustainable growth via foreign direct investments. The increase in protective measures will also be the topic of a panel.
Besides the conference, the event will hold an investments round and a business fair, where public bodies and companies will present their projects.
For further information, click on the logo below to visit the AIM’s website.
Translated by Sérgio Kakitani
