São Paulo – The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported this Monday (26) that world trade is expected to lose momentum in Q4 2018. The World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) is at 98.6 points, the lowest level since October 2016. According to the WTO, a reading below 100 means that trade growth in the next few months will be below-trend mid-term. The indicator’s previous reading was 100.3 points.
According to the WTO, the moderation of the indicator was the result of decline in all indices, particularly in Export Orders, which dropped to 96.6 points, close to the lowest level ever registered, in 2012, during the Euro Zone debt crisis.
The other indices of the WTOI are Merchandise Trade Volume (101.5), International Air Freight (100), Container Port Throughput (101.2), Automobile Production and Sales (96.9), Electronic Components (93.9) and Agricultural Raw Materials (97.2).
For the organization, the results confirm its forecasts from September, which signaled a slowdown of world trade growth from 4.7% in 2017 to 3.9% in 2018 and 3.7% in 2019. The weaker performance was expected due to the trade war between the United States and China and tighter credit market conditions.
Translated by Sérgio Kakitani
