São Paulo – In a press release this Wednesday (30th), the World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised down its growth estimates for global trade from 3.3% to 2.8% in 2015 and from 4% to 3.9% in 2016. The latest forecasts had been released in April.
The organization remarked that in case the 2015 projection proves true, this will be the fourth back-to-back year with growth below 3%, and that the rate will be on par with the growth of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Throughout the 1990s and on into the beginning of the past decade, exports and imports grew twice as much as the world economy.
According to the WTO, the downward revision is a result of several factors affecting international economy in the first half of this year, such as plummeting demand for imported goods in China, Brazil and other emerging nations; the falling prices of commodities; and significant exchange rate fluctuations.
For the second half of the year and beyond, forecasts become hard to make, in the organizations’ assessment, because of the volatility of the financial market, uncertainty about the US’s monetary policy – will the FED increase or not interest rates? – and the mixed data about the performance of the global economy.
“Trade can be a catalyst for economic growth. At a time of great uncertainty, increased trade could help reinvigorate the global economy and lift prospects for development and poverty alleviation”, said WTO’s director general, Brazilian Roberto Azevêdo, according to the statement.
He added that WTO members can help to set trade growth on a more “robust trajectory” by seizing the initiative on a number of fronts. “Notably, by negotiating concrete outcomes by our December Ministerial Conference in Nairobi”, he added, referring to the organization’s meeting set to takpe place in Kenya’s capital.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum and Sérgio Kakitani
