São Paulo – Brazil’s grain harvest could be up 3.1% in 2019, as per forecasts from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The National Supply Company (Conab) sees output going up 4.2% in 2018/19. The numbers were made public this Thursday (10) by both organizations. The forecasts differ so much because Conab works with crop-years – running from October to September – while the IBGE works with regular years.
Conab’s latest grain crop survey – its fourth this crop-year – provides for a 237.3 million-ton harvest. Planted area is expected to be 62.5 million hectares, up 1.2% from 2017/18.
Items whose harvests are seen increasing include first-crop maize, with a 0.4% increase in planted area and an expected 27.5 million-ton output. Considering the year’s first and second maize crops combined, output is expected to be up 12.9% compared with 2017/18, to 91.2 million tons.
Conab also sees the planted area for cotton – the bulk of which gets planted in January – going up 25.3%, with output expected to increase by 20.3%. First-crop peanut output is expected to be 10% bigger at 551,700 tons.
As for soy, planted area should be up 1.7%, but output is expected to drop by 0.4% to 118.8 million tons. The rice harvest should be down 7.15 to 11.2 million tons. As for first-crop beans, 1.1 million tons should be harvested, with planted area going down 7.7%.
Conab also put out numbers regarding the end of the season last December for winter crops – including oats, canola, rye, barley, wheat and triticale. Results were better than in the last season, despite the weather issues in major producing areas. Wheat output was up 27.3% to 5.4 million tons.
IBGE
The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) released its third prognosis for the 2019 crop (January to December), including cereals, legumes and oilseeds, whose combined output it estimated at 233.4 million tons. The bigger crop should be driven by maize, up 8.4% year-on-year; cottonseeds, up 6.6% to 5.3 million tons; and soy, up 0.8% to 118.8 million tons. Rice and bean crops are both seen decreasing year-on-year.
Planted area is expected to be up 2.1% to 62.2 million hectares. In 2018, according to the IBGE, Mato Grosso was the country’s leading grain producing state, followed by Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul.
Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
