São Paulo – The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply of Brazil forecasts that the grain output in the country will reach some 390 million tonnes ten years from now, a 24% growth, which means 75.5 million tonnes. The result is set to be reached especially in the soybean, maize and cotton crops.
The forecast is on the Agribusiness Projections Report – Brazil 2022-23 to 2032-33 that was carried out by the Ministry’s Secretariat of Agricultural Policies in partnership with Brazilian government’s agriculture research agency Embrapa.
According to the Ministry, this increase in production will be achieved at a yearly rate of 2.4%. The area set aside for planting foodgrains are expected to increase from 77.5 million hectares to 92.3 million hectares in 2032-33.
Investments in research
Soybean production is expected to account for 78% of the planted area, and its output is expected to reach 186.7 million tonnes in 2032 and 2033, up 20.6% from the 2022-23 output.
The survey warns that although the agribusiness projections show a “huge growth potential,” investments in research will have to increase.
“The additional 14.7 million hectares of grain planted area may come from converting currently dilapidated areas, particularly from extensive pastures, and other possibilities, so as not to impact the country’s vegetation cover,” the Ministry said in a statement.
Maize and cotton
Following the soybean example, maize is also set to be influenced by its increased use to produce biofuels (biodiesel and corn ethanol). According to the survey, its estimated total output for 2032-33 is 160 million tonnes, up 27% from 2022-23 output.
“Exports and the maize demand for producing ethanol will be two major forces to encourage its cultivation. Maize has increasingly gained in importance as both a raw material and a foodstuff,” the Ministry went on.
The survey forecasts a 3.6 million tonne production of cotton ten years from now, up 26.8%. Ninety percent of its current production comes from the states of Mato Grosso and Bahia.
“The productivity boost is expected to be driven by genetic improvement, better agricultural practices, new technologies, and precision farming,” the Ministry said.
Meats
Meat (beef, pork and poultry) production is expected to rise by 6.6 million tonnes from 2022-23 to 2032-33. If confirmed, the result will mean a 22.4% increase in production, from 29.6 million tonnes to 36.2 million tonnes.
“Poultry and pork are expected to see the highest growth rates over the following years: poultry by 28.1% and pork by 23.2%. Beef output is slanted to grow by 12.4%, although Brazil will keep leading the global beef market, supplying 28.5% of the global consumption,” the Ministry said based on the country’s “infrastructure growth endeavor,” as well as “investment in research and funding for the sector.”
According to the survey, the country’s meat output will be pushed up by the growth of the domestic market and exports. Approximately 35.5% of the poultry output and 14.8% of the pork output will be intended for the domestic market. “Although Brazil is a major exporter of several products, the domestic market will be relevant,” the Ministry forecasted.
“The domestic market, exports and gain in productivity will be the leading growth factors over the coming decade. In 2032-33 nearly 33% of the soybean output will be intended for the domestic market, while 65% of the maize production and 43% of the coffee output will be consumed domestically,” said the Ministry.
Translated by Guilherme Miranda
