São Paulo – Out of the manifold repercussions of ongoing conflicts across Middle East and North Africa countries, the economic ones will linger for at least 20 years. In a document released this Friday (16), International Monetary Fund (IMF) director-general Christine Lagarde asserted that conflicts in Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen have massive consequences, and advised on three major lines of action to minimize the damages: assessing the economic costs of conflicts, putting adequate recovery policies in place, and relying on international support.
The statement claims Syria had a 52% school dropout rate in 2013. Life expectancy in that country fell from 76 years pre-conflict to 56 years now. As of May 2015, inflation had soared by roughly 300%. According to Lagarde, at 4.5% average annual growth, it’ll take Syria 20 years to regain its 2010 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) levels.
In Yemen, where an internecine struggle is also underway, GDP slid from 25% to 30% in 2015 from 2014. The Syrian war, says Lagarde, spills over to neighboring Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey.
“To varying degrees, these countries are exposed to the challenges of hosting large numbers of refugees, weaker confidence and security, and declining social cohesion,” Lagarde asserted.
To cushion the impact of war, the IMF suggests protecting government institutions to ensure basic health services and wages. It also advises the countries to prioritize spending towards providing shelter to the population, and protection to the most vulnerable groups. It adds that fiscal imbalances must be kept in check, since military spending goes up as revenues dwindle in times of war.
Lagarde adds that the international community plays a key role in cash donations and in alleviating the consequences of conflicts. “Over the longer term, the priority is to provide scaled-up development aid to help rebuild infrastructure and institutions, and, more broadly, strengthen economic and social resilience across the region,” according to Lagarde. The document was made public on occasion of the United Nations General Assembly, set to take place on September 20th in New York City.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
