Rio de Janeiro – Exports from Brazil should amount to USD 220.117 billion in 2019, down 7.7% from an expected USD 237.485 billion in 2018. The forecast was released on Thursday (13) by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB). Imports are seen going up 2.1% to USD 186.36 billion, up from an expected USD 182.534 billion by the end of this year. As a result, 2019 should see Brazil’s trade surplus sliding by 38.6% from a projected USD 54.951 billion in 2018 to USD 33.757 billion.
AEB chairman José Augusto de Castro said the main reason for weaker export revenues will be commodity prices, since here are signs they will be lower than this year. Another reason is soy exports should decline. Eighty-two million tons of soy got shipped from Brazil this year. “It’s an absolute record, because we had shipped 68 million tons the year before,” said Castro.
On the other hand, imports will likely increase as the economy picks up. “The surplus is a consequence. Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by about 2.5%, and this will require importation. So, we will see weaker exports due to commodities and stronger imports due to GDP growth. This will lead to a narrower trade surplus,” he said.
As for oil, the AEB expects shipped volume to increase and prices to drop. “Because this year, there was almost a consensus that oil would not go past USD 55, and it hit USD 82.”
In 2019, the AEB expects the oil barrel to sell for about USD 62, the same as now, because the United States have become the biggest oil producing country, and they have no interest in seeing prices go up. They will probably push prices down. That’s why prices are expected to drop compared with 2018.
Imports are seen going up 2.1% to USD 186.36 billion, up from an expected USD 182.534 billion by the end of this year. As a result, 2019 should see Brazil’s trade surplus sliding by 38.6% from a projected USD 54.951 billion in 2018 to USD 33.757 billion.
AEB chairman José Augusto de Castro said the main reason for weaker export revenues will be commodity prices, since here are signs they will be lower than this year. Another reason is soy exports should decline. Eighty-two million tons of soy got shipped from Brazil this year. “It’s an absolute record, because we had shipped 68 million tons the year before,” said Castro.
On the other hand, imports will likely increase as the economy picks up. “The surplus is a consequence. Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by about 2.5%, and this will require importation. So, we will see weaker exports due to commodities and stronger imports due to GDP growth. This will lead to a narrower trade surplus,” he said.
As for oil, the AEB expects shipped volume to increase and prices to drop. “Because this year, there was almost a consensus that oil would not go past USD 55, and it hit USD 82.”
In 2019, the AEB expects the oil barrel to sell for about USD 62, the same as now, because the United States have become the biggest oil producing country, and they have no interest in seeing prices go up. They will probably push prices down. That’s why prices are expected to drop compared with 2018.
Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
