São Paulo – Last year, global trade recovered from a first-half slump, but imports increased by only 1.7%. In 2014, global trade had grown 3%, according to preliminary numbers released by the World Bank this Wednesday (9th) in its Global trade watch: trade developments in 2015 report.
The slowdown was basically caused by weak demand, made worse by falling commodity prices and China’s new, slower pace of growth, among other factors. The report is from World Bank economists Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo and Michele Ruta.
Whereas weak imports had concentrated in developed countries in the years leading up to 2015, emerging nations joined the ranks of decelerating economies and partial recovery last year. Asia, which accounts for over one fourth of global trade, was the epicenter of this gearshift to slower growth.
Shrinking imports in Latin America, Europe, Central Asia and China weighed on the economies of commodity-exporting countries like Brazil and Russia. In turn, they imported less from other parts of the world, including from China. Had Chinese imports not weakened in 2015, global trade would have grown by 2.1% instead of 1.7%, the World Bank report concludes.
In the first half of last year, global trade dropped 3.5%. The rebound came in the second half.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum