São Paulo – The World Bank estimates that the Middle East and North Africa, which includes the Arab nations, grew 3.8% in 2012, according to report Global Economic Prospects, disclosed on Thursday (15), in Washington. Expansion is significantly higher than the 0.6% that had been forecasted by the institution in June last year, in the previous edition of the study.
According to the World Bank, growth of the region’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2012 has returned to 2010 levels, prior to the Arab Spring. In 2011, several countries in the region staged popular protests and regime changes, which resulted in retraction of 2.4% in the economy.
Growth of the blocs GDP last year, according to the bank, was boosted mainly by the return to export of oil from Libya, where the economy expanded at an estimated rate of 108%, and due to “robust and durable” 11% expansion in Iraq.
That more than made up for the 20% GDP reduction in Syria, which has been living a civil conflict for the last two years. The bank informs, however, that estimates for the Syrian economy “comprise significant uncertainty”.
Among other countries in the region, Algeria, Morocco and Jordan grew 3%, the Egyptian expansion has reached 2.6% in the fiscal year, which has not yet finished, the GDP of Tunisia rose 2.4%, and that of Lebanon, 1.7%.
The nations in the region that have to import oil grew 2.5% in 2012, below the regional average, according to the bank. Apart from the political and social situation that is still unstable, the institution mentions as factors inhibiting greater growth the crisis in the Euro Zone, which stunted foreign capital flows, as these nations are strongly connected to Europe, weak crops in Morocco, budget problems in Jordan, monetary difficulties in Egypt, with depreciation of the Libyan pound and foreign currency reserves.
The good news, according to the Central Bank, is that there was growth in the tourist flow. The number of visitors to Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia rose, but the total was below the figure for 2010.
The Central Bank has increased its future projections. For 2013, the institution hopes for 3.4% growth in the Middle East and North Africa, with reduction in expansion in Libya, to a more “sustainable” 7.6%. Other nations may grow more than in 2012, including Egypt (3.8%), Jordan (3.3%), Algeria (4.3%), Morocco (4.4%), Tunisia (3.2%), Lebanon (2.8%), Yemen (4%, as against 0.1% in 2012) and even Iraq (13.5%). For 2014 and 2015 the estimate for expansion of the region is between 3.9% and 4.3%, respectively. Perspectives published in June 2012 estimated growth of 2.2% in 2013 and 3.4% in 2014.
Possible problems on the economic horizon for the region are prolonged political instability, the worsening of the conflict in Syria, with repercussion in neighbouring nations, a continued European crisis and a worsening in the fiscal problems of the United States.
Brazil
In Brazil, the GDP growth last year is estimated at 0.9%, after “modest” growth of 2.7% in 2011. In June, the bank forecasted that economic activity in Brazil would grow 2.9%. The performance below expected caused the institution to reduce the forecast for 2013 from 4.2% to 3.4%. The estimate for 2014 was expanded from 3.9% to 4.1%. In 2015, the World Bank evaluates that Brazil may grow 4%.
Globally, the World Bank reduced estimates throughout 2012 from 2.5% to 2.3%, and also in 2013, from 3% to 2.4%, in 2014 the cut was from 3.3% to 3.1% and global growth forecasted for 2015 is 3.3%.
*Translated by Mark Ament
