São Paulo – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) disclosed on Wednesday (27) the Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, in which it points out the political changes that are taking place in the Arab countries, opening opportunities for the region in the long-term but, in the short term, these nations have internal challenges to face.
In the internal area, there is the economic impact of political crisis and, in the external, the problem of high commodity prices on the international market. "In the long run, the uprisings could give a boost to the economies in the region by setting more inclusive growth agendas," said the director of the Middle East and Central Asia department at the IMF, Masood Ahmed, according to a Fund press statement. "However, the near-term outlook is challenging, and there is a pressing need to address unemployment and improve safety nets," he added.
In the medium term, according to the IMF, there are different possible sceneries, with more positive perspectives for oil exporters. The study estimated the average growth of the group of analysed nations at 3.9% in 2011, but with growth of 4.9% in the commodity exporters and just 2.3% in those that need to import the product.
In the former case, the increases in oil prices and in production of oil should inject liquidity in the producer nations, which should double the joint current account surplus of these nations to US$ 380 billion. The Gross Domestic Product of the actions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), for example, should grow 5.3%, according to the Fund. The bloc includes six large exporters of oil, gas and their products: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman.
The report points out, however, that the great exporters of the commodity "continue to face challenging structural issues”: the need for greater economic diversification, job generation, development of the financial system to sustain the growth and improve the management of public funds.
Among the countries of the region that are not great exporters of oil, especially those that live political turmoil, the IMF considers the expansion in public spending is "understandable and necessary to ensure social cohesion". "Many countries will need external support to help them manage the transition," said Ahmed.
Despite the challenges, the report adds that the region has many positive points to face them: a young and dynamic population, many funds, a great regional market, a privileged geographic position and access to essential markets. "While the months ahead will be challenging and inevitably marked by setbacks, there is now momentum for change to build upon," concluded Ahmed.
*Translated by Mark Ament
