São Paulo – The global soy market should continue disputed next year. Great producers who had bad crops this year should have good crops again and return to supplying in 2010, placing uncertainty on Brazilian exports to some markets won in 2009. “It is a question of negotiation. It does not mean that Brazil is going to lose these markets,” said Nilva Claro Costa, a technician in the soy area at the National Food Supply Company (Conab).
The Arab market is one of those increasing purchases of Brazilian soy this year, which took place, according to specialists, due to the lack of products by other suppliers, like Argentina. Up to October this year, Brazilian revenues with sales of soy grain to the country totalled US$ 197 million, against US$ 103 million in the whole of last year. The greatest buyer in the region was the United Arab Emirates. The heated global demand, however, may help Brazil remain in new markets like this one.
Expectations are for a great global soy crop in the 2009/2010 period. The global offer should rise by 20 million tonnes, to 250 million tonnes. That is, growth of 19%. But there should also be growth in global consumption, three million tonnes, to 233.36 million. The low stocks and the expanding demand, according to Nilva, should cause expansion of the crop, and not to lower prices. Mostly responsible for the higher demand, once again, is China, according to the Conab technician.
Brazil also hopes for a large soy crop. The climate has helped the cultivation, which is already taking place in producer countries. Mato Grosso, the largest producer, has already seeded 95% of its crop. As the maize market is living a bad phase, according to Nilva, farmers have decided on soy, boosting the cultivated area. The size of soy crops should remain between 22.35 million hectares and 22.75 million hectares, growth of 2.9% and 4.7%, respectively. National production should grow between 9.5% and 11.4% to between 62.5 million hectares and 63.6 million hectares.
Brazilian exports, however, should drop a little, from 28.6 million tonnes this year to 24.9 million tonnes in 2010. The competition with the foreign market should also influence it, but also weighing heavy in this result is the fact that in 2009, due to the lower crop in great competitors, Brazilian foreign sales of the commodity remained at a similar level. Global exports, however, are going to grow by 76.85 million tonnes, in the 2008/2009 crop, to 79.37 million tonnes in 2009/2010.
*Translated by Mark Ament