São Paulo – The main developing nations are facing an economic crisis and several markets worldwide are retracting. But not tourism. The sector has been growing in recent years and, according to the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), the number of tourists this year reached one billion. The movement has been growing since 2010. Those operating in the sector say that the growth should not be above 4% in coming years, but believes that travelling is currently as common as buying a house or a car.
The communications director at the UNWTO, an agency of the United nations, the Portuguese Sandra Carvão stated that travelling has become a need. “In periods of crisis, people may even reduce the number of trips or their distance. However, travelling has become a way of life for people, something that belongs to nature, to their reality. The growth of trips has also been boosted by emerging economies. Travelling is becoming less and less of a luxury and more and more a need,” she said.
A study promoted in 2011 about UNWTO forecasts showed that in 2030, 1.8 billion people should cross borders and that participation of tourists from Europe and North America should drop by then. In 2010, Europe was responsible for 51% of the world tourist flow and the Americas for 16%. In the same year, the participation of Asia and the Pacific was 22% of the total, that of the Middle East, 6, and Africa, 5%. The UNWTO forecast is that in 2030, 41% of the tourist flow should be generated by Europe, 30% by Asia and the Pacific, 14% by the Americas, 8% by the Middle East and 7% by Africa.
Carvão believes that the growth or reduction in participation of a continent in the tourist flow is related, among other factors, to the strength of the regional economy. “The growth or reduction in the quantity of tourism is connected to the importance of this region in the global economy,” said the UNWTO director.
The coordinator of the Tourism graduate course at Anhembi Morumbi University, Andrea Nakane, also stated that travelling has stopped being a distant dream and has become a reality in the life of people, observing that the flow of tourists worldwide is growing as citizens of countries that didn’t use to have an opportunity to travel now do.
Nakane says that reduction in ticket prices and more attractive payment conditions have also increased chances for purchases of tourist packages. The UNWTO study shows that 51% of tourists in 2012 travelled on leisure, 27% to visit relatives or for health reasons and 15% travelled on business.
"Low-cost airlines and the greater availability of tickets are facilitators (for those interested in travelling), as is the ease of payments. With greater demand, more interesting values are showing up. In Brazil, for example, a social class that did not use to travel is now within the circuit. Today, it is becoming easier and easier to work to increase the volume of tourists, and there are technological devices to allow tourists to find different rates. Travelling is now almost a necessity in the search for well-being,” said Nakane.
Regional habit
The coordinator at Anhembi Morumbi recalls, however, that despite the growth in the number of people travelling, the habit is still regional. There is a very great flow of people travelling within their own countries or continent. In China, said Nakane, the volume of people who travels has been growing much each year. However, the Chinese still stay mostly in their country. The same takes place in Europe, where, according to the UNWTO, 80% of tourists come from countries in the region.
The same occurs in Brazil and other Latin countries. According to the director of the Study and Research Department at the Ministry of Tourism, José Francisco Salles Lopes, 60 million Brazilians will have travelled in 2012 and promoted 197 million traveller moves within the country. The volume of Brazilians to leave the country in 2012 should remain stable, at 6.2 million. With regard to the tourists coming here, in turn, most come from South America and 30% are Argentine. “Tourism has regional characteristics and travelling short distances or by land is much cheaper than by aircraft,” he said.
As is the case with Carvão and Nakane, Lopes pointed out that the growth of global tourism is related to development of countries that previously were not great issuers of tourists, and gives as examples Brazil, Russia, India and China. He also believes that the ease to pay for trips in up to 12 instalments, something not possible before, helps people visit new places.
Apart from the growth in the volume of tourists from emerging nations and the ease in transfer for Europeans, tourists from other regions are also responsible for the growth in international passenger flow. This is the case, for example, with the countries of the Middle East. Their participation in the global passenger flow should grow from 6% in 2010 to 8% in 2030 and Carvão believes that this is respectable growth. “It may seem little, but the expansion represents growth from 61 million people travelling to the region each year to 150 million in 2030.”
Worldwide, there were 940 million tourists in 2010, growth of 6.4% over 2009. In 2011, the growth was 4.6% and the tourist flow reached 983 million. In 2012, international arrivals should grow 4% over 2011. The same should take place in coming years. Carvão believes that in 2013, the growth in tourist flow should be between 2% and 4% over 2012.
The UNWTO forecast shows that between 2010 and 2030 tourist arrivals should grow at an average of 3.3% a year. Between 1980 and 2020, the growth should have been 4.2% a year. According to the UNWTO, the lower growth in volume of tourists should be attributed to the lower growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of countries and in growth of transport costs.
*Translated by Mark Ament
