São Paulo – In 2009, Brazil recorded the highest coffee export volume in the last four years, with the sale of 30,308,863 bags of the product. Germany was the leading buyer of Brazilian coffee, with the purchase of 6 million bags. The United States ranked second, with 5.8 million bags, followed by Italy, with 2.5 million bags, and Japan, with 2.1 million bags.
Revenues, however, dropped by 10% over 2008, having totalled US$ 4.27 billion, as against US$ 4.748 billion in the previous year. Despite the lower revenues, Guilherme Braga, director general of the Brazilian Coffee Exporter Council (Cecafé) considers the 2009 results to be positive, due to the increase in volume shipped which, according to the executive, gave Brazil a global market share of more than 31%.
“The market has been reacting in a steady recovery process. Proof of that is the fact that in December 2009, the average price of a bag of coffee was US$ 153.91, a figure close to the pre-crisis price,” said Braga. In 2009, the average price of a bag was US$ 140.77, as against US$ 160.96 in 2008.
According to forecasts by the Cecafé, Brazilian coffee exports in 2010 should be around 30 million bags, of which 13 to 14 million bags should be sold in the first half of the year, and 16 to 17 million in the second half. Revenues, in turn, should range from US$ 4.6 billion to US$ 4.8 billion.
The Cecafé director underscores that consumption in the markets most affected by the crisis (United States, Japan and Europe) has not declined, but rather remained stable or showed modest growth (with the exception of Eastern Europe). Therefore, the organization expects annual consumption to grow by around 2% (or 2.6 million bags/year).
With regard to the types of coffee, the Cecafé believes that in the case of the Arabica variety, a good supply, coupled with a reduction in supply from Colombia and Central America, is going to a favourable adjustment of supply and demand, countering any eventual use of inventories by importer countries. Thus, Brazil should maintain its sales levels without pushing for the increase of inventories.
With regard to the Robusta variety, the outlook is similar, with a possible reduction in exports from Vietnam, and an increase is likely to occur in shipments of the Brazilian Conillon variety, which tends to become more competitive in the foreign market.
In December 2009, Brazilian coffee exports totalled 2,444,612 bags, generating revenues of US$ 386.424 million.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum