São Paulo – The world should see a lower economic growth rate in 2014, and that should affect the global demand for oil. So says the August report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to information released this Friday (9th) by the Kuwait News Agency (Kuna). Next year, the demand for the commodity should be up by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), down 100,000 barrels from the prior forecast, and the resulting average demand should be 92 million bpd.
The preceding projection was revised due to “lower macroeconomic forecasts” issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July. The previous global economic growth forecast for 2014 was 4%. Now, the forecast has dropped to 3.8% in 2014.
Meanwhile, world oil supply has been on the rise mostly due to countries which are non-members of the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (Opec), as Opec member countries struggle with political situations, according to the document.
These issues have put a brake on overall Opec output, which was down by 165,000 bpd in July to 30.41 million bpd. The main problems in production took place in Libya and Iraq, due to violence.
Last month, total crude oil output stood at 91.85 million bpd, up 575,000 bpd from June, with non-Opec member countries accounting for all of the increase during the period.
Output in non-Opec member countries should increase to 55.4 million bpd in the quarter four this year, up 1.4 million bpd from 2012 levels. The impact of United States shale gas production is still being assessed, but may significantly affect energy usage and supply.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum