São Paulo – The Middle East, China and Latin America should drive the market growth for 30- to 120-seat aircraft up until 2030. So says a report disclosed this Monday (20th) by the Brazilian aircraft manufacturing company Embraer during the 49th edition of the Paris Air Show, which will end on the 26th this month. According to the company, the number of revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) will grow at an average of 5.2% until 2030. The rate of growth, however, will be higher in China (7.5%), Latin America (7.2%) and the Middle East (7.2%). Embraer forecasts that by 2030, the annual traffic volume will have reached 13 trillion revenue RPKs.
According to the survey, the market for 30- to 120-seat aircraft will grow across all regions. In other regions of the world, however, the RPK growth will be lower. The document estimates growth of 6.1% for the Asia-Pacific region, 5.9% for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and 5.4% for Africa. In consolidated markets experiencing greater difficulty exiting the crisis, the growth rate will be lower. Embraer estimates that North America will grow by 3.5% and Europe, by 4.4% until 2030.
Worldwide, the demand for 30- to 120-seat aircraft should reach 7,225 units until 2030. Out of that total, 3,125 should be delivered between 2011 and 2020. Another 4,100 aircraft should begin operating between 2020 and 2030. The market should see a turnover of US$ 320 billion during the period. Most of the aircraft currently in operation will be replaced.
Despite the lower rate of growth, the highest amounts of aircraft will still be delivered in North America and Europe. Out of a total of 7,225 aircraft, 2,350 will go to North America, 1,675 to Europe, 975 to China, 670 to Latin America, 615 to the Asia-Pacific region, 435 to Russia and the CIS, 310 to the Middle East and 195 to Africa. The Middle East will receive 4% of deliveries and Africa, 3%. Latin America will receive 9% of all aircraft delivered.
Aside from disclosing its forecasts, Embraer has already closed its first deals at the fair. The Air Lease Corporation, based in the United States, has confirmed five order options that it placed last year. The five aircraft are Embraer E-190 model jets. Now, the Air Lease Corporation’s orders for Embraer jets comprise 25 E-190s and 5 E-175s. The Brazilian company was not the only one to do business at the Paris Air Show. Qatar Airways signed a contract for purchase of six Boeing 777-300ER aircraft from the United States-based manufacturer.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
