Brasília – Finance market expectations for the Brazilian trade balance (exports minus imports) have improved for the fourth week running, according to the Focus Bulletin, disclosed on Monday (4) by the Central Bank (BC). Surplus estimates for this year rose from US$ 15.50 billion in the previous research to US$ 16.10 billion. For 2012, the projection has risen from US$ 9 billion to US$ 10 billion.
This improvement has a direct impact on foreign current account expectations, involving all trade and financial movement. Finance sector analysts heard by the BC estimate that the deficit for the end of the year should total US$ 62.45 billion, no longer the US$ 63.20 billion, forecasted last week. This projection has been falling constantly for six weeks.
The Focus bulletin forecasts slight growth, from 39.40% to 39.50%, in the ration between the public sector net debt and Gross Domestic Product. For 2012, the perspective improves to 38%.
Finance sector analysts have improved forecasts for industrial production, from 4% to 4.08% this year, but have reduced it from 4.70% to 4.65% for next year. They maintained expectations of 4% for GDP growth this year. In 2012, the expansion should be 4.30%.
Calculations are based on a projection of the benchmark interest rate (Selic) at 12.25% late this year, dropping to 11.25% next year, with one American dollar costing approximately 1.70 Brazilian real in late 2011 and 1.75 real in late 2012.
The Focus Bulletin also stated that projections for foreign direct investment (FDI) should reach US$ 44 billion this year and $ 43.85 billion in 2012.
*Translated by Mark Ament
