São Paulo – The Gaza Strip’s capacity to provide its population with minimum living conditions is likely to decline until 2020. So says a survey on the region released by the United Nations this week. According to the study Gaza 2020: a liveable place?, approximately 1.6 million people live in the territory today. By 2020, the population will be 2.1 million and there will not be enough water, schools or doctors for everyone.
“The people of Gaza remain worse off than they were in the 1990s, despite increases in real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita over the past three years. Unemployment is high and affects women and youth in particular. Gaza’s GDP per capita is expected to grow only modestly in the coming years, making it ever more difficult for Gazans to secure a decent living,” according to the study conducted by the United Nations’ humanitarian coordinator Maxwell Gaylard, the special representative of the United Nations Children’s Fund (Unicef) in the occupied territories, Jean Gough, and the director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (Unrwa), Robert Turner.
As of 1994, the per capita GDP of the Gaza Strip was US$ 1,327. In 2011, it was US$ 1,165 and by 2020 it should be US$ 1,273. In 2011, 29% of the population was unemployed and 44% of houses were plagued by food insecurity. The study acknowledges that the Gaza Strip economy is slowing bouncing back from a deep slump. However, it notes that the informal economy, as well as the trafficking of goods along the tunnels linking Gaza to Egypt, has “blossomed” in the last few years and favoured the “de facto” authorities in the territory.
According to the study, in 2011, there were 839,000 children and youths aged up to 17 in the Gaza Strip, who comprised 51% of the total population. By 2020, 1.029 million children and youths up to 17 years of age will amount to 48% of the population. Last year, 558,000 children and youths were in school age. By 2020, they will be 673,000. In order for all to go to school, the study forecasts, the number of existing schools would have to go from 250 units as of 2011 to 440 by 2020. With regard to social aspects, also, by 2020, the Gaza Strip will need 1,000 more physicians and 2,000 more nurses than those working at this time.
The region will need investment in electric power and water supply. The current power generation capacity is 242 megawatts (MW). In 2011, the demand peaked at 350 MW and will reach 550 MW in 2020. Presently, only 10% of the water coming from the aquifer which supplies the Gaza Strip is fresh. According to the study, by 2016 there will be no more fresh water.
“Without such action, the daily lives of Gazans in 2020 will be worse than they are now. There will be virtually no reliable access to sources of safe drinking water, standards of healthcare and education will have continued to decline, and the vision of affordable and reliable electricity for all will have become a distant memory for most. The already high number of poor, marginalized and food-insecure people depending on assistance will not have changed, and in all likelihood will have increased,” the report claims.
According to the survey, the Gaza Strip needs investment in basic infrastructure, especially water and power supply, and improvements in services to the population, such as education and healthcare. “As a heavily urbanized environment with little room for further growth, Gaza needs to be open and accessible to the world. The viability of a future Palestinian state depends on a proper connection between the West Bank and Gaza, providing access to the Mediterranean for the entire occupied Palestinian Territory,” the study claims.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
