Brasília – Brazilian financial market investors and analysts have once again lowered their economic growth estimate, which has gone down from 3.23% to 3.2% in 2012. The industrial growth estimate has also dropped, from 2.03% to 2%. These indicators are causing concern with the government, which should announce measures this Tuesday (3rd) to stimulate the industrial sector, one of the most seriously affected by the international economic crisis. One of the measures expected is a lowering of the tax burden on wages.
On the other hand, the financial market’s inflation expectation for 2012, measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), has decreased once again. The estimate, which stood at 5.28% last week, has dropped to 5.27%. The exchange rate projection has been increased from 1.76 real for one dollar to 1.77 real for one dollar by the end of the year, and the expected benchmark interest rate (Selic) has been maintained at 9% for this year. The expected net public sector debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio was changed from 36.2% to 36.5%.
The figures were culled from the Focus bulletin, issued by the Central Bank on a weekly basis, and show that with regard to foreign accounts, a US$ 69 billion deficit is expected to be maintained. The trade balance is expected to show a US$ 19 billion surplus by the end of the year, and foreign direct investment should be US$ 55.37 billion, as against a US$ 55 billion forecast issued last week.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
