São Paulo – Brazilian maize exports, which last crop reached 9.4 million tonnes, should drop to 8.5 million tonnes this crop, according to a project disclosed by the National Food Supply Company (Conab) on Thursday (9). The drop should be 10%. The oleaginous plant and livestock farming manager at Conab, Thomé Guth, said that Brazil will have maize for export, but that other global maize suppliers should have good crops and logistics stunt Brazil’s competitiveness.
According to Guth, there should mainly be maize available for export in Mato Grosso and Paraná. Together with Mato Grosso do Sul, the two states answer to between 70% and 80% of the second crop, also called the little crop, in Brazil. The first crop started being sowed in October and the second should take place in March. Maize in Mato Grosso, however, needs to travel around 2,000 kilometres by road to get to the port. Rio Grande do Sul, in turn, where there are ports closer to production, faced a drought this crop and should not have much maize for export.
"It is a market question. We are forecasting exports of between eight and nine million tonnes, but it may be that during the crop this (forecast) may be changed,” said the manager, who is also an analyst in the maize area. According to him, sowing in the United States takes place late in February and in early March, and by July it is already possible to know whether the crop in the country, a great producer, will be large. Guth said that Brazil does not have the Argentine and US ‘just-in-time’ in maize distribution and that cultivation in Brazil is spread out, not all surrounding ports.
"But it is always possible to import maize from Brazil,” said Guth, on being asked whether Brazil will have enough maize for the Arab market, as was the case last year. In 2011, Brazil shipped to the Arab world some 140,000 tonnes of maize, which corresponds to US$ 679 million. There was 22% growth. According to the manager, among the markets for the Brazilian grain abroad are Iran, the main buyer, Taiwan, Japan, Colombia, Egypt and other countries in the Middle East. "One of the advantages of Brazil is that the country has diversified its markets,” said Guth.
Despite believing in a reduction in exports, the Conab forecasts 6% greater production. In the 2011/2012 crop, 60.8 million tonnes should be picked, as against 57.4 million tonnes in the previous crop. It should not come from productivity, that should drop 4.5%, to 3,900 kilograms per hectare, but from greater cultivation area, to climb to 15.3 million hectares, with expansion of 11% over the previous crop. One of the explanations for this growth is that the product price has remained high.
*Translated by Mark Ament
