São Paulo – The unstable climate in 2010 and the advanced age of cane plantations did not help the 2011-2012 sugarcane crop. The state of São Paulo, which answers to 70% of Brazilian production, should pick 4 million tonnes less than in the previous crop. Other producers, however, should compensate the losses and even help increase the grinding of cane by 2% (of a total of 560 million tonnes in the country). So as not to lose productivity next year, farmers need to renew crops and hope for a more stable climate this year.
The president at the Association of Cane Farmers of Monte Aprazível Region (Aplacana), Donaldo Luis Paiola, is pessimistic regarding the crop this year and next. According to him, producers suffered last year due to the lack of rain, which affected crops and grinding.
The region of São José do Rio Preto, in the northeast of the state, where Monte Aprazível is located, has around 15,000 hectares of cane plantations, which totalled 8.2 million hectares all over the country. There, according to Paiola, total recoverable sugar (TRS) ranges from 90 to 100 kilograms per tonne. This measure shows the volume of sugar available in the raw material after losses in the industrial process. A TRS of 140 kg/tonne of sugarcane would be ideal, according to the farmer.
For greater productivity, it is necessary for the cane crop, or part of it, to be young, which is also not happening in the crops of the Centre-South, especially in the state of São Paulo, where the cane crops are aged 4.2 years, on average, whereas the ideal would be 2 years of age.
"Due to the low prices practised in 2008 and 2009, farmers did not provide the necessary treatment to the cane crops. Due to prices, there was no renewal. This year, there is a beginning of works, though still very initial, for the 2012-2013 crop. Farmers are lacking capital," said Paiola.
The representative of the São Paulo Sugarcane Agroindustry Union (Unica), in Ribeirão Preto, Sergio Prado, stated that cane fields are being renewed, but recalled that, in recent years, replacement was below 10%. What is ideal is renewal of 20% of the crop each year. "If we renew it all at once, we will have nothing to pick next year," said Prado. Cane growth takes 18 months for production of sugar and ethanol.
The director at Datagro Consultancy, Guilherme Nastari, said that there was 4% reduction in crop productivity. That is, the crop did not generate what it should have, but grinding should exceed the demand. He also recalled that the sector suffered much in 2010 due to climate changes. "In July, August and September there was a very strong drought. In October and November, rains were much above the average," he recalled. Nastari warns, however, that the global market wants sugar. "If he could, the farmer would produce more sugar."
In the case of ethanol, despite the greater volume of ground cane, exports should drop. For two reasons: production should be turned to the national market, which is growing; and the international market is lacking sugar. This is different from what took place in 2006 and 2008, when there was excess sugar and the commodity’s prices would not even cover production cost. "Then, in 2008, came the [international financial] crisis that affected producers. In 2009 and 2010 we had climate problems," said Prado, from Unica.
"What is more important, however, is that, here, consumers may choose what fuel they want to buy. Consumers regulate the price of ethanol," said Nastari, referring to the fact that in Brazil most of the cars produced are dual-fuelled, that is, they may run both on ethanol, petrol or any combination of the both fuels.
In February 2010, exports reached 1.47 million tonnes of sugarcane products. In the same period this year, the total was 1.3 million tonnes.
*Translated by Mark Ament
