Rio de Janeiro – The goal of Brazil for the next ten years is to triple its annual oil and gas production. To that end, the sector should receive 67% of the forecasted investment of 1 trillion reals (US$ ) in the country’s energy sector. According to the president of the Energy Research Company (EPE, in the Portuguese acronym), Maurício Tolmasquim, who presented the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2020) on this Monday (6th), in Rio de Janeiro, the Brazilian oil production should go from the current 2.1 million barrels per day to 6.1 million in 2020, as a result of pre-salt layer exploration.
“Consumption will increase, but the bulk of it is going to the foreign market,” explained Tolmasquim, warning that the volume covers both the production of Petrobras and of the entire private sector. According to the PDE, half the production will go to exports.
As for natural gas, the EPE estimateas that the supply should leap from the current 58 million cubic metres per day in 2011 to 142 million cubic metres per day in 2020.
The PDE, which is already open to public consultation on the website of the Ministry of Mines and Energy, also projects a significant increase in the demand for ethanol on the Brazilian market as a result of the greater number of bi-fuel vehicles, which currently represent half the domestic fleet, but should account for 78% of all automobiles in the country by 2020. Besides, the EPE estimates that the price of ethanol will be competitive when compared with gasoline. The supply of ethanol should receive the near-totality of forecasted investment in biofuels, which should be 97 billion reals (US$ ).
“As the number of (bi-fuel) vehicles goes up, ethanol consumption goes up too. Traditionally, 70% of the people who own bi-fuel cars consume ethanol rather than gasoline,” explained Tolmasquim. The ethanol supply is projected to keep pace with the rising demand, eliminating the possibility of a shortage of the biofuel due to pricing, weather conditions and crop seasonality.
As for electric power, Tolmasquim also presented an optimistic scenario. According to the PDE, Brazil has scheduled projects to generate 70% of the electric power required to meet the projected increase in demand up until 2020, which should average at 4.7% a year, as against a 5% projected economic growth rate. The remaining 30%, which are still pending commissioning, will have renewable sources as their priority origin. The share of hydroelectric plants, which currently account for 75% of installed capacity, should drop to 67% by 2020.
“With regard to power generation, hydroelectricity remains the priority, followed closely by wind energy and biomass. We cannot rule out gas-fuelled thermal plants, because alongside the pre-salt layer, a large volume of natural gas has been discovered, and gas may play an important role in this matrix as well, explained the EPE president.
The PDE, however, provides for an increase in the share of sources regarded as alternative, from the current 8% to 16%. That includes wind farms, biomass and small hydroelectric centrals.
Regarding nuclear energy, Maurício Tolmasquim showed caution and highlighted that the PDE provides for the building of the third plant at Angra dos Reis as the only nuclear plant to be built in this decade. “After that period, we may hope for a debate on the role that nuclear energy should play in the Brazilian matrix. A major debate is going on after [the radiation leak at the nuclear plant of] Fukushima, in Japan. Plants in Germany have been deactivated. But we must consider that Brazil has strong potential, it masters the enrichment [of uranium] and has the world’s sixth largest uranium reserves. Thus, we should not consider letting go of this technology, but rather discuss it by looking at the pros and cons, to see at what pace we should explore it.”
*With information from the ANBA Newsroom. Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
