São Paulo – The international food price index measured by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) was down 1% in October from September. Year-to-date as of October 31st, the indicator averaged at 8% below the same period in 2011, according to figures released this Thursday (8th) by the UN agency.
The index went from 215 points in September to 213 last month, driven by declining prices of grain, oils and fats, which more than offset the increase in dairies and sugar prices, according to the FAO.
“Despite tight markets, a set of conditions and measures have so far stopped international food prices from spiraling up as they did in 2007-08 and 2009-10,” said the Brazilian-born FAO director general José Graziano da Silva, according to a press statement released by the organization.
The FAO estimates that global spending on food imports will reach US$ 1.14 trillion in 2012, down 10% from last year. The forecast takes into consideration factors such as the decline in prices of certain products, lower freight costs, and a lower volume of cereal imports worldwide.
The organization warns, however, that cereal production in the 2012-13 crop should be down 2.7% from the preceding period, which saw a record-high crop. That should cause a 25 million decline in global inventories.
The cereal price index was down 1.2% in October from September, but remained 12% above October 2011 figures. Maize prices declined due to lowered demand from livestock farming and industry. Wheat prices dropped due to the slowing down of trade.
As for rice, the FAO is expecting a record-high output this year. Rice sales are on the rise and should keep rising next year. The FAO does not believe soy prices will drop, given the United States’ frustrating crop, but claims South American results are not known yet.
The FAO is also expecting a record-high sugar output this year and increased trade in the 2012-13 period. Prices were up 1.6% in October from September, but remain 20.2% lower than October 2011 prices.
The index for meat prices has not changed from September to October, but prices are near an all-time high and world production is expected to grow by less than 2% this year. Dairy prices were up 3% month-on-month and may increase even further, according to the organization.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
