São Paulo – The volume of goods traded in the world should expand in 3.3% in 2015 and 4% in 2016, said the World Trade Organization (WTO) in a research released this Tuesday (14th). Last year, world trade expanded 2.8%. According to the document, 2014 marked the third straight year in which trade grew less than 3%. In the 1990s, the average annual growth was of 5.1%.
“Trade expansion has been disappointing in the last few years, due to a prolonged sluggish growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) following the financial crisis. Looking forward, we expect trade to continue its slow recovery but with economic growth still fragile and continued geopolitical tensions, this trend could easily be undermined”, said Brazilian Roberto Azevêdo, WTO’s director-general, in the statement.
“But we are not powerless in the face of this gloomy scenario. Trade can be a powerful policy tool to leverage economic growth and development. By withdrawing protectionist measures, improving market access, avoiding policies which distort competition and striving to agree to reforms to global trade rules, governments can boost trade and seize the opportunities that it offers for everyone.”
According to the WTO’s document, several factors contributed for the slow expansion of trade and for the results of 2014 and early 2015, among them the slowdown of GDP growth in the emerging countries, an uneven recovery in the developed countries, and rising geopolitical tensions, among others. The strong oscillations of currency rates, including the 14% appreciation of the North American dollar against other currencies between July 2014 and March 2015, also complicated the trade scenario and its results.
The WTO also says that the collapse in the oil world prices in 2014, with a decline of 47% between July 15th and December 41st, and the weakness in other commodities impacted exports revenues and reduced the demand for imports in the exporting countries.
The WTO reminds that the prices are still going down, suggesting excess of supply, insufficient demand or both. For the organization, it will be some time to know if these effects will be positive or negative for world trade this year.
Forecasts
The WTO foresees that in 2015 exports by emerging or developing economies should grow 3.6%, while their imports should go up 3.7%.
According to the organization’s release, Asia should post the best performance in exports among all regions this year, with an expansion of 5%, followed close by North America, with an increase of 4.5%. International European sales should also go up, with an expansion of 3% in shipments.
The lower growth rate in exports this year should be posted by South America with 0.2%. Other regions, such as Africa and Middle East, should post a decline of 0.6%. About imports, the organization says that North America and Asia will have an expansion of 5% this year, with South America with a drop of 0.5%.
*Translated by Sérgio Kakitani
