Brasília – Financial analysts and investors have revised down their economic growth expectation, after raising their forecast seven days ago. The new estimate is 0.27%, as against last week’s 0.28%. The figures are part of the Focus Bulletin issued this Monday (20th) by the Brazilian Central Bank.
According to the analysts polled, inflation should end the year at 6.45%, i.e. close to the top end of the government’s target range, which is 6.5%. The benchmark interest rate (aka Selic rate) is expected be 11% per annum, same as the current rate. The dollar is expected to cost 2.40 Brazilian reais. Government-influenced prices such as energy bills are expected to be up 5.15% this year.
Analysts and investors have once again revised up their net debt-to-GDP ratio forecast, to 35.1%. Pessimism has also increased regarding industry growth, expected to be -2.24%.
The financial market’s outlook for the foreign sector is not bright either. The expected current account deficit, one of the major economic indicators, has gone from US$ 80 billion to US$ 81 billion, and Brazil’s trade surplus forecast has been lowered to US$ 2.29 billion, from US$ 2.44 billion in the prior forecast. The foreign direct investment forecast has been kept at US$ 60 billion for 2014.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum