São Paulo – Exports of soy in grain rose 115% in the first quarter of this year as against the same period in 2011, but the figure does not mean an inversion in bad forecasts for the commodity in 2012. According to the director at Brasoja Corretora de Cereais, Antônio Sartori, the growth is seasonal due to logistics and trade strategies, but that does not mean that there is consistent growth in exports of the product. “Nothing should change in the year’s trade balance figures,” he said.
Figures disclosed by the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade show that sales of the oleaginous plant reached 6.8 million tonnes and registered US$ 3.2 billion in revenues in the first quarter. The growth, in financial terms, was 99% in comparison with January to March 2011.
But the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) expects exports of 32 million tonnes in 2012 (civil year), with 3% reduction in volume, and US$ 14.7 billion in revenues, 10% down as against 2011.
Abiove also forecasts lower prices per tonne this year, dropping from US$ 495 to US$ 460. Recent News on climate problems in the United States, however, should change the lower price scenario, as some North American states are facing what should be their strongest drought since the 1930s. The dry climate may cause losses in the soy crop and thus result in higher prices for the commodity on the international market.
Brazilian exports, however, should drop, no matter what the price, as the country has faced serious drought problems in the South, affecting production. Rio Grande do Sul, which picked 12.5 million tonnes in the previous crop, should harvest no more than six million tonnes in the 2011/2012 period. Brasoja believes in 67 million tonnes of soy in the current crop in Brazil. This means a reduction of 10.6% over the previous crop.
In its latest study, the National Food Supply Company (Conab) forecasts a crop of 68.75 million tonnes, lower than the 8.7% over the 2010/2011 crop. The March estimate, in fact, was even 0.69% lower than the previous forecast, for February, as the drought in the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná was extended. The cultivation area is 24.97 million hectares, up 3.3%.
*Translated by Mark Ament
