São Paulo – Despite the perspectives of growing use of ethanol in the world, the biofuel, which is made out of sugarcane in Brazil, should not push the traditional fuel market, like oil and gas, out of the way. This was one of the statements made by the conferences at the 2nd Ethanol Summit, a meeting of heads and professionals in the sector, which began on Monday (1st) and ends today (3rd), in São Paulo.
The demand for energy should double over the next 50 years and the global population should rise by 1.5 billion people. This, according to Rob Smith, Business Development director at CH2M Hill, a multinational company that operates in the energy sector, should guarantee space for several kinds of energy.
Smith said that oil and gas should remain as the base of global energy, but added that to supply the demand and also reduce the emission of pollutant gas, biofuels like ethanol are essential. Petrobras president José Sergio Gabrielli made a statement in the same direction.
According to a study presented by the executive, global trade of ethanol should grow tenfold by 2020, but its use, as light vehicle fuel should not exceed 5%. "In Brazil, ethanol should be a growing alternative, but in the world it will be relatively small," said Gabrielli.
Currently, the fleet of petrol fuelled light vehicles in Brazil is around 50%. This should drop to 17% by 2020, according to estimates already presented. With regard to the flexible fuel fleet, which can run on both petrol, alcohol or any mixture of the two fuels, it should grow to 75%. "That is why it is not worth producing petrol. Our refineries are not going to produce petrol, but ethanol," said the Petrobras president.
The company has a branch, called Petrobras Biofuels, to operate in the area. The oil company should invest a total of 174 billion Brazilian reals (US$ 87 billion) between 2009 and 2013, of which 2.8 billion reals (US$ 1.4 billion) should go to biofuel projects, 84% to ethanol production plants.
Brazil already mixes 25% ethanol into petrol. With regard to the use of this mixture in other countries, Gabrielli recalled that to mix in 5%, for example, no modifications to the vehicle are necessary. He believes that this should be the most viable alternative for the rest of the world.
Smith said that the world must follow Brazil with regard to diversification of the energy base. "Brazil is a success story in the world (in the area of energy), a combination of vision, knowledge and desire for distribution," said the director at CH2M Hill. According to him, the Brazilian model, of mixing petrol and biofuel, is the future. The challenge, he said, is to do the same in other countries.
Less oil
Apart from producing lower emissions of pollutants, ethanol is an alternative for the lack of oil. Kjell Aleklett, a physicist and professor at Uppsala University, in Sweden, said that oil is currently at its peak with regard to extraction, which is very high. According to him, other alternative renewable fuels must be discovered. Aleklett said that the growth of the economies, or of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) throughout history has been accompanied by greater consumption of oil. "The world needs oil to grow," he said.
Most of the speakers discussed the need, however, for reduction of the consumption of oil to reduce the emission of greenhouse gas. "The use of oil must be reduced, we cannot continue burning the volumes of oil we burnt last century," said Adriano Pires, director of the Brazilian Infrastructure Centre (CBIE) and moderator of panel "Alternative fuels and the future of oil," at the Ethanol Summit.
What would be ideal would be for each country to have a solution to energy supply, said Smith. He recalled, however, that most nations do not have oil, natural gas and biofuels for energy safety. Brazil, according to Pires, has uranium reserves, wind for solar energy, earth, water and sun for biofuels. Smith said that power, in the future, should be in countries that are self-sufficient in food and fuels. "Only Russia and Brazil," he said.
*Translated by Mark Ament
