São Paulo – Global agricultural output will grow by a lower rate in the coming ten years than it did from 2003 to 2012. The Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 report released this Thursday (6th) in Beijing, China, by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), estimates that output will be up 1.5% each year on average in the ten-year period, as against 2.1% in the preceding ten years.
The slowdown is a consequence of limited new agricultural areas, increased production costs, decreased resource availability and greater environmental pressure. The publication claims, however, that supply will still be sufficient to meet the demand.
However, the lower rate of growth, coupled with high consumption, will cause agriculture and livestock prices to remain above the historical average in the medium term.
The two organizations claim that this scenario opens up vistas when it comes to investment attraction by producing countries, especially developing ones, because the demand for food grows faster in them, they have more agricultural frontiers to be explored, and boast comparative advantages on the international market.
The survey reports that the agricultural sector today is market-oriented to a greater extent than it is driven by government policies as it was in the past.
The markets that should grow the most are those in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, followed by Latin America and other Asian countries. Regarding production, the productivity gap between emerging countries and developed ones will decrease.
The report estimates, for instance, that developing economies will account for 80% of the increase in production, and for a significant share of meat exports in the coming 10 years. These countries will also account for the bulk of exports of grain, rice, oleaginous foods, vegetable oils, sugar, beef, poultry and fisheries.
China is a highlight in the report. The country, which is home to one fifth of the world population, should remain self-sufficient in the main crops over the next ten years, despite the forecast of a slowdown in production due to territorial restrictions and availability of water and labour force. The growth in consumption should outstrip that of production by 0.3% on average, which, according to the survey, may lead to a modest increase in the Chinese market’s openness.
Crop failures and price volatilities remain the main threats to international food security. “A widespread drought such as the one experienced in 2012, on top of low food stocks, could raise prices by 15% to 40%,” according to the survey.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
