São Paulo — Egypt is facing the economic challenges posed by turmoil in the Middle East more resiliently and better than in similar situations in the past. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country has responded swiftly to economic challenges, resulting in contained inflation, ample foreign exchange reserves and growth.
In a report released Monday evening (21), the Fund said Egypt had implemented reforms in recent months that prepared the country to withstand external shocks. The currency was devalued, resulting in inflation, but the increase in prices was lower than expected.
Egypt’s 12-month growth reached 5% by the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2025/2026. The IMF said international reserves remained “comfortably above adequate levels despite initial capital outflows.” The Suez Canal gradually resumed operations after a temporary disruption caused by regional instability.
Even so, challenges remain for the country. “The latest shock demonstrated Egypt’s improved resilience, but significant vulnerabilities remain. Public debt and gross financing needs are still high, financing relies heavily on short maturities, and banks’ exposure to the government remains elevated,” the document said. It was signed by Amine Mati, the IMF’s mission chief for Egypt and assistant director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department, and Yevgeniya Korniyenko, the IMF’s senior economist for the Middle East and Central Asia.
The IMF estimates financing needs will remain around 40% of gross domestic product in the short term and gradually decline to below 30% by 2030. The IMF said that, to consolidate the economy’s progress, Egypt will need to maintain macroeconomic stability through exchange-rate flexibility, appropriately tight monetary policy and fiscal prudence while implementing reforms.
The IMF recommends stronger governance of state-owned enterprises and greater competition in the economy to reduce the state’s presence and create conditions for private sector-led growth.
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Translated by Guilherme Miranda
